Better Off Jed

I blew it. I played poker at a co-worker’s house last night. I finished 5th out of 20. Top 4 paid. The last hand was a total mess for me.

There were 6 players. The blinds were 300/600. I had about 6500 in chips. There were two people with shorter stacks than me.

I’m sitting in the big blind and get dealt Kh 9h. Three people limp in and I gladly check my option. There is 2400 in the pot.

The flop comes Jd Kd Qh. The guy in the small blind checks. I check behind. Next guy moves all in for 2400. I’m already thinking about calling when the other two guys surprisingly call the all-in. Now the pot is 9600. The pot is giving me 4:1 odds to call. I have top-pair and a gut shot straight draw. There’s a flush-draw and a straight-draw on the board. I figure that I probably have the best hand at the moment.

I called the all-in. Maybe I should have re-raised all-in. However, that would have made the pot about 15000 and only an extra ~3000 for the other two to call, so I probably wouldn’t have been able to push out any draws. Actually, I just used PokerStove to figure out my odds. With that flop, against 3 random hands, I am the overwhelming favorite, however, with that board, I’m sure I’m not up against “random” hands. I probably should have folded, but the pot odds….I just had to call. The pot is now about 12000.

The turn is Qd. I’ve got two-pair. My only move is to go all in, but with that size bet into that large of a pot, I wouldn’t be getting anyone to fold. Everyone checks around.

The river is the Ah. The guy to my right goes all-in. At this point, I know I’m beat. I have to be beat. If I fold, I have about 3000 left. With the blinds at 300/600, I’m pitifully short stacked. I think long and hard. There’s no way my two-pair is any good.

To recap, the board looks like this:   Jd Kd Qh Qd Ah

I make the call. I gave myself a lifeline by checking the turn then I used it to hang myself on the river. I’m still trying to figure out why I called as I turn over what is sure to be the losing hand:

Seat 1 (the guy who pushed on the river):  As Qc, for a full house
Seat 2 (me): Kh 9h, for two-pair
Seat 4 (the original all-in on the flop): 10h 4h, for a straight
Seat 6: Ad 4d, for the nut flush

Honestly, I think I was just really tired. If I had folded the river, I’d be totally short stacked. I suppose  I could have stolen some blinds and/or found a good hand to push with. It’s possible I could have lasted long enough to finish in the top 4. Also, I did not even notice the flush on the board. Sometimes, when I have two pair, I just don’t see anything else. I knew that somebody had a straight. Hell…if somebody just had an Ace, I would’ve been beaten. There were so many ways I could have been beaten. What a dumb call! For some reason, I convinced myself that I was pot committed. I’m so convinced that I had to lookup a definition of pot committed:

• From PokerZone.com:  Who has already contributed such a high percentage of one’s chip stack to the pot so as to make folding no longer a reasonable choice even if holding a hand that is likely to be beaten on the showdown.
• From Learn-Texas-Holdem.com: Being pot committed simply means that you have so many chips already invested in the hand relative to your remaining chips, and the odds, that you have to call. Folding would be a mathematical mistake.
• From conjelco.com: A state where you are essentially forced to call the rest of your stack because of the size of the pot and your remaining chips.
• From wiktionary.org: Being in a position where the odds dictate a call of a bet or raise (almost) regardless of one’s opponent’s cards.

Yes, I’m trying to convince you (as well as myself) that I made the right decision. The actual odds of winning after the flop (Jd Kd Qh) were:

Seat 1:  As Qc (7.5%)
Seat 2 (me): Kh 9h (39%)
Seat 4: 10h 4h (11.5%)
Seat 6: Ad 4d (41%)

I was surprised to see that I was a slight underdog after the flop even though I had the best hand. I’m going to remember that. That’s poker math that I certainly couldn’t have figured out at the table. Overall, I probably played the hand correctly…until the river. I still don’t know what I was thinking. It’s hard to play fatigued.

iTunes has coincidentally chosen to play Boston’s Peace of Mind right now. I could use some right now.